Excess Mortality at Veterans Health Administration Facilities During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in excess mortality among the general US population and at Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities. It is critical to understand the characteristics of facilities that experienced the highest and lowest pandemic-related mortality to inform future mitigation efforts. OBJECTIVE: To identify facility-level excess mortality during the pandemic and to correlate these estimates with facility characteristics and community-wide rates of COVID-19 burden. DESIGN: We used pre-pandemic data to estimate mortality risk prediction models using 5-fold cross-validation and Poisson quasi-likelihood regression. We then estimated excess mortality and observed versus expected (O/E) mortality ratios by the VHA facility from March to December 2020. We examined facility-level characteristics by excess mortality quartile. PARTICIPANTS: Overall, there were 11.4 million VHA enrollees during 2016 and 2020. MAIN MEASURES: Facility-level O/E mortality ratios and excess all-cause mortality. RESULT: VHA-enrolled veterans experienced 52,038 excess deaths from March to December 2020, equating to 16.8% excess mortality. Facility-specific rates ranged from -5.5% to +63.7%. Facilities in the lowest quartile for excess mortality experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths (0.7-1.51, P <0.001) and cases (52.0-63.0, P =0.002) per 1,000 population compared with the highest quartile. The highest quartile facilities had more hospital beds (276.7-187.6, P =0.024) and a higher percent change in the share of visits conducted via telehealth from 2019 to 2020 (183%-133%, P <0.008). CONCLUSIONS: There was a large variation in mortality across VHA facilities during the pandemic, which was only partially explained by the local COVID-19 burden. Our work provides a framework for large health care systems to identify changes in facility-level mortality during a public health emergency.

Changes in Health Care Access by Race, Income, and Medicaid Expansion During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The intersecting crises of the COVID-19 pandemic, job losses, and concomitant loss of employer-sponsored health insurance may have disproportionately affected health care access within minorized and lower-socioeconomic status communities. OBJECTIVE: To describe changes in access to care during the COVID-19 pandemic, stratified by race/ethnicity, household income, and state Medicaid expansion status. RESEARCH DESIGN: We used interrupted time series and difference-in-differences regression models, controlling for respondent characteristics and preexisting trends. SUBJECTS: Data were extracted for all adults aged 18-64 surveyed in the 2015-2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (N=1,731,699) from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. MEASURES: Our outcomes included indicators for whether respondents had any health insurance coverage or avoided seeking care because of cost within the prior year. The primary exposure was the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in March 2020. RESULTS: The pandemic was associated with a 1.2 percentage point (pp) decline in uninsurance for Medicaid expansion states (95% CI, -1.8, -0.6); these reductions were concentrated among respondents who were Black, multiracial, or low income. The rates of uninsurance were generally stable in nonexpansion states. The rates of avoided care because of cost fell by 3.5 pp in Medicaid expansion states (95% CI, -3.9, -3.1), and by 3.6 pp (95% CI, 4.3-2.9) in nonexpansion states. These declines were concentrated among respondents who were Hispanic, Other Race, or low income. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce the value of Medicaid expansion as one tool to improve access to health insurance and care for marginalized and vulnerable populations.

Medicaid Subscription-Based Payment Models and Implications for Access to Hepatitis C Medications.

Importance: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) can be cured with direct-acting antiviral medications, but state Medicaid programs often restrict access to these lifesaving medications owing to their high costs. Subscription-based payment models (SBPMs), wherein states contract with a single manufacturer to supply prescriptions at a reduced price, may offer a solution that increases access. Whether SBPMs are associated with changes in HCV medication use is unknown. Objective: To estimate changes in Medicaid-covered HCV prescription fills after Louisiana and Washington implemented SBPMs on July 1, 2019. Design Setting and Participants: This cross-sectional study examined trends in prescription fills of Medicaid-covered direct-acting antiviral HCV medications in Louisiana and Washington after implementation of SBPMs. A synthetic control approach was used to compare changes in HCV prescription fills between states that did and did not implement SBPMs. The unit of analysis was state-quarter. Outpatient direct-acting antiviral HCV prescription fills from the Medicaid State Drug Utilization Data files were obtained from all 50 US states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2020. Exposures: Implementation of SBPMs for Medicaid-covered direct-acting antiviral HCV medications. Main Outcomes and Measures: Direct-acting antiviral HCV prescriptions filled per 100 000 Medicaid enrollees. Results: In the year preceding SBPM implementation, the mean (SD) rate of quarterly HCV prescription fills per 100 000 Medicaid enrollees was 43.1 (8.6) prescriptions in Louisiana and 50.1 (4.1) in Washington. After SBPM implementation, the mean (SD) rate of quarterly HCV prescription fills per 100 000 enrollees was 206.0 (51.2) prescriptions in Louisiana and 53.9 (11.0) in Washington. In synthetic control models, SBPM implementation in Louisiana was associated with an increase of 173.5 (95% CI, 74.3-265.3) quarterly prescription fills per 100 000 Medicaid enrollees during the following year, a relative increase of 534.5% (95% CI, 228.7%-1125.0%). Washington did not experience a significant change in prescription fills following SBPM implementation. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, Louisiana experienced substantial increases in HCV medication use among its Medicaid-enrolled population following SBPM implementation, whereas Washington did not. These differences may partially be explained by state-level variation in SBPM implementation, historical restrictions on access to HCV medications, and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Association of Childcare Facility Closures With Employment Status of US Women vs Men During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This cross-sectional study assesses the association of closures of childcare facilities with the employment status of women and men with children in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Medicaid expansion and drug overdose mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in the delivery of health services, which may have adversely affected access to substance use disorder (SUD) treatment services. Medicaid expansion has been previously associated with increased access to SUD services for low-income adults. Thus, the pandemic may have differentially impacted overdose mortality depending on expansion status. This study examined trends in overdose mortality nationally and by state Medicaid expansion status from 2013 to 2020. METHODS: State-level data on overdose mortality were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's WONDER database for 2013-2020 (N = 408 state-years). The primary outcomes were drug and opioid overdose deaths per 100,000 residents. The primary exposure was Medicaid expansion status as of January 1st, 2020. Difference-in-difference (DID) models were used to compare changes in outcomes between expansion and non-expansion states after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The U.S. experienced 91,799 drug overdose deaths in 2020, a 29.9% relative increase from 2019. Expansion states experienced an adjusted increase of 7.0 drug overdose deaths per 100,000 residents (95% CI 3.3, 10.7) and non-expansion states experienced an increase of 4.3 deaths (95% CI 1.5, 8.2) from 2019 to 2020. Similar trends were observed in opioid overdose deaths. In DID models, Medicaid expansion was not associated with changes in drug (0.9 deaths, 95% CI -2.0, 3.7) or opioid overdose deaths (0.8 deaths, 95% CI -1.8, 3.5). CONCLUSIONS: The increase in drug or opioid overdose deaths experienced during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was similar in states with and without Medicaid expansion.

Association of Childcare Facility Closures With Employment Status of US Women vs Men During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This cross-sectional study assesses the association of closures of childcare facilities with the employment status of women and men with children in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic.

County-Level Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Excess Mortality Among U.S. Veterans: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to impact the world at large, Veterans of the US Armed Forces are experiencing increases in both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality. Veterans may be more susceptible to the pandemic than the general population due to their higher comorbidity burdens and older age, but no research has examined if trends in excess mortality differ between these groups. Additionally, individual-level data on demographics, comorbidities, and deaths are provided in near-real time for all enrolees of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). These data provide a unique opportunity to identify excess mortality throughout 2020 at a subnational level, and to validate these estimates against local COVID-19 burden. METHODS: We queried VHA administrative data on demographics and comorbidities for 11.4 million enrolees during 2016-2020. Pre-pandemic data was used to develop and cross-validate eight mortality prediction models at the county-level including Poisson, Poisson quasi-likelihood, negative binomial, and generalized estimating equations. We then estimated county-level excess Veteran mortality during 2020 and correlated these estimates with local rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. FINDINGS: All models demonstrated excellent agreement between observed and predicted mortality during 2016-2019; a Poisson quasi-likelihood with county fixed effects minimized median squared error with a calibration slope of 1.00. Veterans of the U.S. Armed Forces faced an excess mortality rate of 13% in 2020, which corresponds to 50,299 excess deaths. County-level estimates of excess mortality were correlated with both COVID-19 cases (R2=0.77) and deaths per 1,000 population (R2=0.59). INTERPRETATION: We developed sub-national estimates of excess mortality associated with the pandemic and shared our data as a resource for researchers and data journalists. Despite Veterans' greater likelihood of risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 illness, their excess mortality rate was slightly lower than the general population. Consistent access to health care and the rapid expansion of VHA telemedicine during the pandemic may explain this divergence. FUNDING: This work was supported by grants from the Department of Veterans Affairs Quality Enhancement Research Initiative [PEC 16-001]. Dr. Griffith's effort was supported in part by the Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality [K12 HS026395].

Effectiveness of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders varied by state.

State "shelter-in-place" (SIP) orders limited the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. However, impacts may have varied by state, creating opportunities to learn from states where SIPs have been effective. Using a novel dataset of state-level SIP order enactment and county-level mobility data form Google, we use a stratified regression discontinuity study design to examine the effect of SIPs in all states that implemented them. We find that SIP orders reduced mobility nationally by 12 percentage points (95% CI: -13.1 to -10.9), however the effects varied substantially across states, from -35 percentage points to +11 percentage points. Larger reductions were observed in states with higher incomes, higher population density, lower Black resident share, and lower 2016 vote shares for Donald J. Trump. This suggests that optimal public policies during a pandemic will vary by state and there is unlikely to be a "one-size fits all" approach that works best.